US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

The week’s tech rout hammered new stocks, which stabilized on Friday alongside the broader market.

I won’t call a bottom, but counterintuitively, a little FOMO during a sell-off can be healthy for long-term investors.

US midterm elections ran blue, sparking fears about a crackdown across the AI value chain. That means the supply side could run into regulatory roadblocks, at a time when the demand side was already under pressure from higher debt costs and concerns about capex, valuations, and circular spending. Naturally, AI infrastructure plays got the worst of it.

It’s not a strong backdrop for Anthropic (Nasdaq: ANT), which is eligible to launch early next week. Still, the wheels are in motion, and it clearly wants to go public off of its 2026 financials. For now, the IPO remains on track, though some investors are reportedly pushing for a valuation close to $1.2 trillion, down from the $2.0 trillion floated as recently as September. In effect, public investors may have dodged an $800 billion bullet.

Anthropic disclosed 9/30 numbers this week. Reactions were mixed.

• The nine-month period reinforced the first-half story: explosive growth and improving economics. Revenue soared 13x to $33.2 billion. Compute gross margin swung positive to 43% from -72%. Adjusted net margin swung positive.

• The results for Q3 shook some confidence. Revenue reached $17.0 billion, but q/q sequential growth decelerated to 47%, from 144% in Q2. The dollar value of the increase was also less, so it wasn’t just a function of the denominator. Both compute gross margin and adjusted operating margin narrowed.

• The compute commitments caused another stir, totaling an eye-popping $895 billion. About half is due before 2031, including $69.8 billion due in the next 12 months.

The numbers show massive scale, but also that the economics of the frontier AI business model are still in flux.

Two healthcare deals joined the IPO calendar, somewhat surprising in light of Anthropic’s expected launch and market turbulence. A fast-growing developer of drill-free cavity treatments, vVardis (NYSE: VVVV) aims to raise more than $200 million at a $1.3 billion value. Phase 3-ready biotech Rezera (Nasdaq: RZRA) is targeting a $200 million raise, roughly 80% of its post-IPO share count. Its drug candidate for peripheral artery disease has caught the eye of GSK, which indicated on the offering and has first negotiation rights to acquire the drug or the company.

Even after Friday’s recovery, the IPO Index ended the week down -4.4%, while the S&P 500 fell -2.7%. Battered electric aircraft maker BETA Technologies was the Index winner, up +35.3% on an earnings beat and landmark FAA authorization. AI infrastructure play Legence landed at the bottom, off -28.1%.