US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

Q3 closed with the IPO market still open for business, just on tougher terms.

The week's marquee deal, fast-growing smart ring maker Oura, postponed its $2.1 billion offering, the fourth deal pulled in two weeks. Valuation was the sticking point, though insider selling, early lock-up releases, and questions about the durability of its growth likely didn't help.

The week's other major deal did get done. Data center-focused Accelevation (Nasdaq: ACCV) priced below the range at a discount to peers and ended the week down -1.6%.

The message to the pipeline is clear: Public investors are still buying, but they’re scrutinizing every deal and expect a healthy valuation discount.

Rate jitters and questions about AI spending have created uncertainty, widening the gap between what issuers want and what investors will pay. Even in a challenging market, buyers and sellers can come together if they’re standing on solid ground. The problem is when the ground starts to shift.

Still, the window has narrowed, not shut, and there are reasons for cautious optimism:

1. The IPO market has been here before, and recently. Recovery has been choppy but constructive.

2. The broader market is not as volatile as it seems. The VIX is holding steady in the mid-teens.

3. A narrow IPO window can be good for public investors. It screens for quality and fair valuations.

In the week ahead, two biotechs, TRex Bio and Iambic Therapeutics, are the most likely to launch, but several other companies are also eligible.

Further out, the Q4 calendar's headline deal is firming up: Anthropic is reportedly set to begin marketing as soon as the week of November 9.

The IPO Index fell -0.2% this week, slightly outpacing the S&P 500 (-0.3%). Software was the surprise winner on a rotation out of AI-focused hardware. ServiceTitan led (+15.6%), followed by Navan (+10.4%) and Rubrik (+8.2%). Chipmaker Cerebras trailed, down -19.5%.