US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

The Iran ceasefire is in effect, and with it a new IPO blitz.

The Renaissance IPO Index shot up +10.4%, its best week in about 4 years. That’s compared to a +4.5% rise in the S&P 500, which hit a new all-time high. The VIX Volatility Index is also giving capital markets the greenlight, comfortably below 20.

Five IPOs priced this past week, all above the midpoint, all trading up. Last year it was rare to see a week clear 5+ deals, but that could soon change. Madison Air Solutions (NYSE: MAIR) raised $2.2 billion in the year’s largest IPO to date, and the biggest industrial IPO since UPS in 1999. Kailera Therapeutics (Nasdaq: KLRA) raised $625 million in the largest biotech offering ever by proceeds, and popped 63% amid roaring demand for GLP-1 obesity drugs.

The takeaway? The IPO market can close – and reopen – very quickly.

Yes, the Iran War is not over. Yes, AI’s impact on the software sector is still an open question, with many tech stocks still in the red. That’s pushing IPO capital into sectors with clearer near-term catalysts:

• Aerospace & Defense: Rising military budgets, conflicts abroad, and lower launch costs (see: SpaceX) are driving demand.

• Biotech: Listings are returning, and it’s no coincidence the Nasdaq Biotech Index is up 55% over the past year, driven by M&A and AI innovation.

• AI Infrastructure: The billions continue to pour in; this includes chipmakers and data centers, as well as power producers and industrial suppliers.

Stable market conditions should broaden the IPO rebound to more sectors.

Four IPOs are scheduled for next week, led by a $750 million offering from advanced nuclear energy play X-Energy (Nasdaq: XE). It’ll be the first traditional IPO from a developer of small modular reactors, once the domain of SPACs alone. It’s joined by convenience store operator Yesway (Nasdaq: YSWY), REIT National Healthcare Properties (Nasdaq: NHP), and critical materials supplier Elmet Group (Nasdaq: ELMT).

AI stocks led the IPO Index’s winners this week, with investors bullish on AI power production (Fermi; +34.5%), healthcare (Tempus AI; +30.1%), and autonomous driving (Pony AI; +22.3%). New stocks in the energy sector brought up the rear as oil prices slid.