US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

We haven’t seen this type of energy in the IPO market for a long time.

Stablecoin issuer Circle (NYSE: CRCL) priced at $31, opened at $69, closed at $82.23, and then finished the week at $107.70. Its first-day pop of +168% broke records as the biggest ever for a billion-dollar IPO.

No doubt every pre-IPO crypto company was on the phone with their bankers this week. Crypto exchange Gemini even issued a press release saying it filed confidentially for an IPO (despite reports that it already did so in February).

The big question: Does it have an impact beyond crypto?

After all, Circle is a unique company, and there aren’t many other big crypto stocks aside from Coinbase. The digital asset community is not known for being “valuation sensitive” and the buy-side knows that these same traders may not show up for, say, an enterprise software IPO.

But Circle is not a one-off. Billion-dollar IPO CoreWeave trades 250% above its March offer price. This past week’s other new stock, digital health firm Omada Health (Nasdaq: OMDA) popped +21%. Other growth IPOs (Hinge, MNTN, eToro) have delivered solid gains. It’s starting to hit home: There is serious money to be made in the IPO market.

And when investors score on one IPO, they tend to put that money to work on future deals.

On that note, for the first time in four months, three sizable IPOs are on the calendar for the week ahead. The group is led by fast-growing neo-bank Chime (Nasdaq: CHYM). Chime was valued as high as $25 billion four years ago, when losses didn’t matter, but it's now pitching itself closer to $10 billion, and profits are finally starting to materialize. The IPO of space-tech firm Voyager Technologies (NYSE: VOYG) won’t be ignored, after a more than +100% return from a close peer (KRMN). Lastly, insurer Ategrity (NYSE: ASIC) will be the latest in a string of insurance listings (following AHL and AII).

The tariff scare delayed many IPOs to the fall, so we’re sticking with our forecast of moderate activity through July, followed by the annual August lull, and then a more full rebound in September/October.

Still, the excitement is palpable. The US IPO market spent the last three years setting up dominoes. Now the dominoes are starting to fall.

The Renaissance IPO Index gained +2.5% this week, compared to +1.5% for the S&P 500. Beaten-down natural gas exporter Venture Global, the year’s largest IPO, ramped up its recovery with a +31.6% gain, after regulators signed off on a key project. Meanwhile, Chinese robo-taxi Pony AI lost its recent steam and sold off -27.7%.