US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

Get ready for the summer of SpaceX.

This week, the space, internet, and AI behemoth flipped the S-1 for its anticipated $75+ billion IPO. While details leaked for months, public investors finally got a real look inside Elon Musk’s crown jewel.

SpaceX's current lines of business include:

1. Space (13% of Q1 revenue). The reusable rocket-powered heart of the company. Generates revenue from launches and mission services.

2. Connectivity (69%). The financial powerhouse. Generates revenue from Starlink satellite internet subscriptions.

3. AI (17%). The new tech. Generates revenue from Grok subscriptions, X ads, and Colossus compute power.

Like many high-profile deals before it, SpaceX’s prospectus is filled with lofty language. There are references to multiplanetary life, the light of consciousness, even the desire to not share the same fate as dinosaurs. And of course, nearly 800 mentions of “AI.”

But behind the buzz, the filing is a gold mine of data points. Here are a few from my first read:

• This is a bet on the next decade, not the next quarter.
  Anyone hoping for Nvidia-like financials was disappointed. SpaceX posted $19.3 billion in LTM revenue; Q1 growth slowed to 15% and operating margin dropped to -41%. Expect wide swings in quarterly results ahead.

• There are many moving parts.
  SpaceX has multiple business lines, all connected, and with uneven financials. Its recent acquisition of xAI, upcoming purchase of Cursory, and newly-signed Anthropic deal all add complexity.

• Free cash flow is outrageously negative.
  Vertical integration is expensive. SpaceX hemorrhaged nearly -$20 billion in cash in the LTM period, driven by a massive $26 billion in capex. Two-thirds went to AI infrastructure, which it's about to monetize.

• A lot is riding on the Starship program.
  SpaceX makes it clear that its next-generation rocket vehicle Starship is central to its goals. However, it's still in development.

• The rumors of the unremovable CEO are true.
  Musk can only be removed from his leadership positions by a vote from the majority holders of Class B shares – 94% of which he owns. Musk is also giving himself an ambitious incentive: Up to 1 billion shares upon the "establishment of a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants."

• The “leak-out lock-up” may be gaining traction.
  SpaceX is following in the footsteps of Cerebras, with 10 distinct lock-up releases. That said, Musk is locked in for a year post-IPO.

SpaceX is reportedly planning to list on June 12, which would mean an official roadshow of just one week. Few deals will be able to compete with SpaceX for attention that week, so several aim to tap markets before the mega listing.

As many as eight offerings could launch on Tuesday, including quantum computing firm Quantinuum, natural gas engine maker INNIO, aerospace manufacturer Applied Aerospace, and scooter rental platform Lime.

If any IPO news could compete with the SpaceX buzz, it's OpenAI – the press reported that it confidentially filed this week for a September IPO.

The Renaissance IPO Index rocketed +8.2% this week, strongly outpacing the S&P 500 (+0.9%). AI names Arm and Astera Labs were among the winners following Nvidia’s stellar earnings report. Blockchain-powered lender Figure landed at the bottom.