US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

The Renaissance IPO Index shot up +7.3% this week, leaving the S&P 500 (+2.4%) in the dust.

With that in mind, two definitions to be aware of as we head into the next IPO upcycle:

Good FOMO: Keeping new stocks in your portfolio to access unique growth opportunities not found in major ETFs.

Bad FOMO: Paying any price to get the latest hot IPO, now.

Experienced IPO investors have a healthy amount of Good FOMO, across market cycles. Experienced IPO traders keep their emotions in check, know that volatility is not risk, and use risk controls like stop-losses. But newcomers tend to get burned by Bad FOMO in a hot market, and ignore Good FOMO in a slower market.

We see powerful momentum trading in recent IPOs. “Nervous excitement” as one Renaissance Capital analyst put it.

Recent IPO all-star Figma had a major pullback on Monday, though it's still up over +100%. This past week’s biggest IPO Firefly Aerospace (Nasdaq: FLY) rode a wave of enthusiasm for space stocks when it popped +34%, before retreating to an +11% return. Data center play WhiteFiber (Nasdaq: WYFI) priced at the high end but immediately broke issue. Remember there's nothing wrong with waiting until day 2 to buy a new stock.

The week’s best-performing new IPO was AI-powered diagnostics play Heartflow (Nasdaq: HTFL), up an impressive +51%, even as other med-tech IPOs have flopped. We liked the company, and what its software can do to help treat coronary artery disease. The AI revolution is currently unfolding in the IPO market, and it covers far more than just the popular AI chatbots.

In the week ahead, two final deals close out the summer IPO calendar. Our IPO poll takers are bullish on Bullish (NYSE: BLSH), the crypto exchange and owner of CoinDesk. Like Circle, ARK is investing on the offering. The other notable listing, Miami International (NYSE: MIAX), is one of the country’s largest options exchanges.

After that, we shouldn’t see any notable pricings until September. Still, expect new IPO filings to continue to roll in throughout the rest of the month, because of an early Labor Day this year.

This week the Renaissance IPO Index was led by AI-focused chipmaker, Astera Labs. Investors were bracing for a blow-out quarter, and boy did it deliver, rocketing up +36.8%. Several other new tech stocks like CoreWeave and Reddit were among the week’s winners. Battered natural gas exporter Venture Global brought up the rear, off -17.2%.