The long-awaited IPO pickup lost some of its steam in October, as the US government shutdown disrupted timelines and delayed deal activity. Twenty-two IPOs raised a combined $3.2 billion, in line with the 10-year historical average by deal count (21) but well below by proceeds ($5.3B), as micro-caps dominated issuance. Six IPOs raised $100 million or more, down from eight in the prior year period, led by venture-backed software firm Navan (NAVN), which unexpectedly kept the year’s tech unicorn revival alive, due in part to new guidance from the SEC allowing for more flexibility in pricing IPOs during the shutdown. The six larger names delivered modest gains, averaging a return of 5%, compared to 26% for the broader group of October offerings (ex-direct listings). Tariff-related volatility rattled benchmarks during the month, and the Renaissance IPO Index ended with a -1% loss, below the S&P 500’s 2% gain. With the SEC effectively shuttered, new filing activity slowed in October as prospectus reviews halted, though seven issuers filed to raise $100 million or more. Blank check issuance held a steady pace throughout the month, with less SEC oversight required compared to a normal IPO, while mergers tapered off slightly. Still, with the SEC striving to maintain market activity and the 20-day rule allowing some progress, the IPO calendar is somewhat populated for early November. We do expect activity to drop off beyond that as we head into the typically slow holiday season, though a near-term resolution to the shutdown and generally solid market conditions could set the stage for a strong start to 2026.
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