US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

The fall IPO market has lost some of its mojo, with two more postponements.

Demand hasn't disappeared, but there is a valuation mismatch between buyers and sellers. After the IPO market rallied +42% in Q2, issuers prepped deals with price expectations that look too high for today's choppier market. Buyers want the typical IPO discount, and simply pointing to AI is no longer enough for a big pop. With plenty of 2024-2026 IPOs trading at more attractive levels, buyers have little reason to stretch.

The IPO Index’s 3-year chart puts that reset in perspective. Postponed IPOs may cite "adverse market conditions" when the reality looks closer to normalized market conditions.

The strongest private companies would find buyers if they launched, but they can also afford to wait for an optimal market. Anthropic is now targeting November.

This Past Week: ADARx Returns +13.8%. Biotechs remain the IPO market’s most reliable trade. The week’s sole IPO, RNA interference biotech ADARx Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ADRX), raised $446 million and returned +13.8%. AbbVie invested an additional $100 million, and large-pharma partnerships can give IPO investors added confidence in an active M&A environment.

Two companies postponed their US listings, led by CVC-backed Bamboo Insurance, which faced a tough setup after peer Orion180's broken IPO the week before. Insiders were also selling 100% of the deal at a $3.3 billion market cap, less than a year after buying in at $1.8 billion.

Next Week: Oura and Accelevation. Smart ring maker Oura (Nasdaq: OURA) plans to raise $2.1 billion at a market cap of nearly $15 billion. The timing makes sense: despite some margin pressure, Oura is growing fast and turning profitable. But it enters a competitive wearables market, and investors have seen high-profile device IPOs like Fitbit and Peloton eventually fizzle.

Oura is also courting retail investors. In a notable first, Robinhood is listed as an underwriter, with Coinbase as a selling agent.

Accelevation (Nasdaq: ACCV) isn't a household name, but its $660 million IPO is an important test for AI infrastructure demand. The company makes power distribution products, similar to February IPO Forgent Power, up +44% from offer.

The IPO Index: Up 2.2%. Despite the bond market selloff, the Renaissance IPO Index gained +2.2% this week, beating the S&P 500’s +1.2%. Top constituent Astera Labs jumped +20.2% following the launch of new memory-connectivity products and a broader chip rally. Restaurant chain Jersey Mike's continued to slide, off -13.2%.