US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

The week’s IPO winners: HawkEye360 (NYSE: HAWK) and the aerospace & defense industry. The signals intelligence provider gained +28% from offer, helped by AI enthusiasm and defense budgets. Rare Earths Americas (NYSE: REA), which also has a defense angle, jumped +23%.

The week’s IPO losers: The consumer sector is still under pressure as juice maker Suja Life (Nasdaq: SUJA) fell -15%. Meanwhile, implant maker Mobia Medical (Nasdaq: MOBI) cratered -22% in one of the year’s worst debuts.

The one lesson that every private company CFO now knows: Go public while you can, because the IPO window can quickly slam shut.

The recent market rally spurred seven deal launches. Next week's IPO calendar has three billion-dollar offerings, the most in a single week since 2021. All 3 have an AI infrastructure angle.

   • Cerebras Systems (Nasdaq: CBRS) aims to raise $3.4 billion in the largest-ever AI IPO. The company’s wafer-scale chips are billed as more powerful and efficient than Nvidia’s GPUs, but they’re also far more expensive. Cerebras did earn a vote of confidence from OpenAI, which committed to a $20 billion order.

   • Fervo Energy (Nasdaq: FRVO) is developing next-gen geothermal power projects to meet AI electricity demand. The lack of revenue is notable for a company targeting a $7 billion market cap, but Fervo boasts $7.2 billion in power purchase agreements.

   • Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust (NYSE: BXDC) is a newly-formed REIT targeting data centers leased to hyperscalers. Expect growth with a dividend.

The IPO pickup may look like it's in full swing, but it feels more precarious than that. The ceasefire in Iran has lifted stocks, but we probably need an end to the war before the IPO market can rip higher. For now we’re left with a mix of FOMO and caution: Investors are ready to bet heavily on a hot deal, but bail if they see cracks. Many recent IPOs have had strong pops on day one, and weak trading from there.

New filers are putting the summer deal calendar into view. On Friday, Lime (Nasdaq: LIME) filed for an IPO that was originally planned for 2022. Every VC is poring over their portfolio for companies that won’t be disrupted by AI, and scooter rental qualifies. More defense is on the way, with a new filing from Applied Aerospace & Defense (NYSE: AADX). And Honeywell's quantum computer unit Quantinuum (Nasdaq: QNT) filed for an estimated $1+ billion IPO.

The IPO Index had a roller-coaster week, finishing off -0.6% compared to a +2.3% gain for the S&P 500. Advanced diagnostics play BillionToOne topped the IPO Index’s winners list, trading up +20.0% on an earnings beat. Email marketing platform Klaviyo fell -31.5% despite a strong Q1, due to soft margin guidance and the CFO’s departure.