IPO investors have spent much of 2025 waffling between caution and exhilaration. This week, caution took the lead.
Travel and expense platform Navan (Nasdaq: NAVN) priced at the midpoint and fell -20% in the worst debut for a sizable tech IPO in four years. It probably would have done well a few months ago, but now it’s a harder sell: a software/booking company with years of losses ahead, and no close peer group to pin a valuation to.
The week’s top IPO performer was auto repair shop Boyd Group (NYSE: BGSI), which raised $780 million and traded up +12% in its US IPO, just two days after its initial filing (Canadian-listed companies can do this).
Medical products giant Medline (Nasdaq: MDLN) filed this week for an estimated $5 billion IPO, which could be the biggest listing since 2021. However, it filed with Q2 numbers, so depending on the SEC Medline’s IPO may need to wait until after the government shutdown ends.
We’ll have one more big week in the IPO market, before that shutdown really starts to sap activity. Electric aircraft developer BETA Technologies (NYSE: BETA) leads with a $750 million deal. This futuristic technology is only a few years away from full commercialization, and Beta claims it has a $250 billion addressable market. On the other end of the aerospace spectrum is restructured Mexican airline Grupo Aeromexico (NYSE: AERO), raising $223 million. Be sure to also keep an eye on molecular test platform BillionToOne (Nasdaq: BLLN).
The IPO Index shed -1.5% this week, while the S&P 500 rose +0.7%, driven higher by the “Mag 7” mega-caps. AI connectivity firm Astera Labs was the IPO Index’s winner, rebounding +13.2%. The losers included a few crypto names, though restaurant CAVA Group brought up the rear with a -15.5% loss ahead of earnings next week.
We’d love to see IPOs skyrocket, but in truth this sort of steady grinding-up market we’ve had year-to-date produces healthier long-term results. Better to see some of this weakness shake out now, before deal activity really picks up.
Take care,
Bill Smith
CEO and Founder
Renaissance Capital
|
Biggest price changes through
Oct 31st
in the
Renaissance IPO Index
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Top 5 | ||
| Astera Labs | ALAB | 13.2% |
| Smithfield Foods | SFD | 3.0% |
| Nextracker | NXT | 3.0% |
| Pony AI | PONY | 1.2% |
| CoreWeave | CRWV | 0.9% |
| Bottom 5 | ||
| CAVA Group | CAVA | -15.5% |
| Circle Internet Group | CRCL | -10.6% |
| Venture Global | VG | -9.7% |
| Chime Financial | CHYM | -8.9% |
| Bullish | BLSH | -6.7% |
| Sectors | ||
| Consumer Staples | -0.6% | |
| Industrials | -0.7% | |
| Health Care | -1.2% | |
| Technology | -1.8% | |
| Real Estate | -3.1% | |
| Financials | -5.4% | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -5.4% | |
| Energy | -9.7% | |
Renaissance IPO ETF (NYSE symbol: IPO) tracks the Renaissance IPO Index
The Renaissance IPO Index returned -1.5% last week vs. 0.7% for the S&P 500.
