US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

No major IPOs this week, but two lined up for the week ahead.

Fermi (Nasdaq: FRMI) is a Texas power plant developer purpose-built for AI energy needs. It’s unusual to see a company founded less than a year ago, with no revenue, go public at a $13 billion valuation. But it starts to makes more sense when news headlines tout $100 billion spending sprees on AI.

Neptune Insurance (NYSE: NP) underwrites and distributes flood insurance. It’s hard to tell how much of the success is due to its AI-powered underwriting engine, and how much of it is due to being in the right place at the right time. In either case, it’s a well-run business, even if insurance stocks have been under pressure.

This week the poster child for the 2021 SPAC boom, Chamath Palihapitiya, listed his first SPAC in four years (AEXA). That’s a clear sign of the 2025 SPAC frenzy, but we’re still a far cry from 2021 levels. I’ll know we’re back in bubble territory when athletes and celebrities form SPACs again.

The IPO Index pulled back -6.5% this week, underperforming the S&P 500 and erasing the month’s earlier gains. So far this is a normal and healthy trading pattern, and the bleeding stopped when we hit the 50-day moving average.

The IPO market now slightly edges out the S&P 500 for the year (+14.2% vs +13.0%).

The IPO Index’s winner, energy exporter Venture Global, traded up +11.9%. AI data center connectivity firm Astera Labs reversed its fortunes with a -19.3% loss. Already we’ve seen several mini-cycles of unbridled excitement for AI stocks, followed by profit-taking and fears of over-valuation. However, the AI super cycle is still going strong.

Assuming a possible US government shutdown doesn’t throw us off track, the IPO calendar should fill up with more deals next week.