Anthropic (ANT) is gearing up for the second-largest US IPO on record, planning to raise $61 billion at a fully diluted market value of $1.2 trillion. While no one can predict how the company will trade, the historic listing raises a familiar question: does size equal performance?
The current three largest US IPOs (ex-cross listings) – SpaceX (SPCX; 2026), Alibaba (NYSE: BABA; 2014), and Visa (NYSE: V; 2008) – all delivered strong first-day gains, ranging from 19% to 38%. Each reached an early high within its first two months of trading. All three subsequently traded below offer.
The results highlight a key consideration for investors ahead of Anthropic’s expected debut: a record-breaking offering and a strong first day do not necessarily translate into sustained stock performance.
| The Largest US IPOs Fell About 50% From Their Early Peaks | ||||||
| Company (IPO Year) | First-Day Return | One-Year Peak Return | Trading Day of Peak | Peak-to-Trough Decline | Trading Day of Trough | Latest Return From IPO |
| SpaceX (2026) | +19% | +57% | 3 | -49% | 37 | +4% |
| Alibaba (2014) | +38% | +75% | 37 | -49% | 244 | +39% |
| Visa (2008) | +28% | +101% | 35 | -52% | 212 | +3,721% |
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