US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

The Renaissance IPO Index climbed to a 2-year high this week. What does it mean for new issuance?

Rising returns lay the groundwork for a Fall pickup in September, though in the near-term July is mostly locked in, and the listing market pauses in August.

The July IPO calendar is filling up steadily, and two sizable deals will test the waters next week. LBO’d hospital operator Ardent Health (NYSE: ARDT) is on tap for a $300 million offering. Texas insurance broker TWFG (Nasdaq: TWFG) plans to raise $165 million.

The pipeline has a decent roster, led by the blockbuster IPO of REIT Lineage (Nasdaq: LINE), which could set its listing date in the coming week. Without a large influx of filings, we’ll likely see a few deals per week up through month-end.

Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman kicked off the roadshow for Pershing Square USA (NYSE: PSUS), aiming to raise up to $25 billion in the largest-ever closed-end fund. We’re not counting it in our IPO stats but it’s notable nonetheless.

I’m not being controversial when I say that AI is the investment mega-trend of the 2020’s. This week CB Insights reported that venture funding for AI startups reached a quarterly high in Q2. Some big names bagged mega-rounds, led by Elon Musk-founded xAI, which raised $6 billion at a $24 billion valuation.

Remember that the IPO market is the front door for AI investing: VC backers will need an exit eventually, and going public is the prime choice. We’ve already seen several AI-focused IPOs, and we expect more in the next few years.

Cooling inflation in June and comments from the Fed renewed hopes for a rate cut this quarter. The IPO market finished the week up +2.1%, outpacing the S&P 500’s +0.9% gain. EV maker Rivian led the winners, returning +22.5%. Restaurant chain CAVA slipped -11.3% amid a broader sell-off in casual dining stocks.