US IPO Weekly Winners & Losers

The IPO rebound has felt 'right around the corner' for two years. It'll stay that way for another month.

The IPO market has entered a seasonal lull, when companies ready their year-end financials. Next week’s IPO calendar is also empty, but new filings will give us a heads-up on next month. For now, volatile markets have us forecasting only moderate deal flow through mid-March.

While rocky trading and postponed offerings have cooled sentiment, we're not worried. Here's why:

• The year’s sizable IPOs ($50mm+) average a solid return of +15% from the offer price.

• Broader markets have stabilized over the past week, and the IPO Index is down just -3.4% year-to-date — not enough to ring alarm bells.

• The IPO pipeline contains plenty of AI disruptors, as well as companies insulated from AI disruption, particularly in areas like industrials, consumer, and healthcare.

There’s even a silver lining to the recent software sell-off: public investors are clearly better off digesting the risk of AI disruption before the coming IPO boom than after. That risk will likely shake out in the valuation, and so the majority of anticipated 2026 tech IPOs should still be on the table.

Case in point: adtech firm Liftoff Mobile, which postponed earlier this month, is said to be gearing up for another IPO attempt now that close peer Applovin has stabilized.

The Renaissance IPO Index rose +1.5% for the week, compared to +1.1% for the S&P 500. Software topped the list, with Figma rebounding +15.8% on the back of a strong earnings report that highlighted its AI tools. Fintech is still in the doldrums, and Klarna struggled after another downbeat quarter, shedding -27.8%.