2008 Annual Global IPO Review
Global IPOs
In recent decades, the global IPO market proved to be remarkably resilient.
IPO activity weathered the 1987 market crash, the Russian debt implosion,
the credit crisis of Long Term Capital Management, the Internet bubble
bursting and 9/11. However, this year's unprecedented financial crisis caused
global IPO issuance to come to a near halt in mid-2008. The few stocks that
managed to go public performed poorly and were pulled down further by the
broader markets. The average new issue was down 35% by year-end
(US performance was not much better, averaging -27%, the worst since the 1973
recession). Although these returns were in line with the broader indices,
investors were discouraged by negative absolute returns and avoided further
participation in IPOs. At the same time, companies that were not in dire
need of financing postponed offerings instead of accepting the lower
valuations demanded by potential buyers.
The overall drop in issuance was huge, with global proceeds falling 69%
year-over-year, and the most established IPO markets, the US and Europe,
were hit particularly hard. In the US, excluding Visa's record-breaking
deal, IPO proceeds would have been the worst since 1994 as venture capital
and private equity deals virtually disappeared and the market for SPACs
dried up. While the successful debut and strong aftermarket performance
of one US deal in November and stirrings in other markets toward the end
of the year were positive signs for IPO activity, the global IPO market still
has a long way to go to full recovery.
(more)
US IPOs
| IPO Summary Stats |
|
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| No. of Deals |
70 |
217 |
214 |
221 |
272 |
43 |
| Total Proceeds (billions) |
$15.4 |
$43.0 |
$35.6 |
$44.9 |
$59.7 |
$28.0 |
| Average Deal Size (millions) |
$220 |
$198 |
$166 |
$203 |
$219 |
$650 |
Please note: Includes 1, 21, 24, 58 and 12 SPACs in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively.
Renaissance Capital's 2008 IPO of the Year
Visa Inc. (V), the world’s largest provider of credit and debit cards, was named the "Renaissance Capital 2008 IPO of the Year" by the IPO research committee of Renaissance Capital. The selection was based on a study conducted by Renaissance Capital's analysts, who prepared investment research reports on the majority of companies that went public last year. Although IPO volume was low in 2008, Visa would have stood out from the pack in any year because of its globally recognized brand, dominant market position, long track record of growth and profitability, the record-breaking size of its IPO, and the relatively strong performance of the company's stock compared with global equity indices.
more
Outlook for 2009 IPOs
- IPO activity will be low in 2009, but new issues could produce healthy returns
- High-growth stories are less likely to be successful as investors lean toward defensive sectors
- Private equity may be a source of several large deals toward the end of the year
- Although many companies have withdrawn IPO filings, there are still 100+ US operating companies in the pipeline
- As in 2008, there will likely be several privatizations going public on foreign markets
With IPO volume low, many investors will be tempted to ignore the IPO market altogether as we move into 2009. This
may be a mistake. Historical precedent suggests that IPOs in periods of low issuance can generate very strong returns
as companies are forced to become more realistic with their proposed valuations in order to successfully raise capital,
thereby creating opportunities for investors.
(more)